The Five Rules of Risk

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Animation by Josh Sherrington
Sound by Graham Haerther (www.Haerther.net)
Thumbnail by Simon Buckmaster
Music by epidemicsound.com
Select footage courtesy the AP Archive
References:
[1] www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/pedestrian_safety/index.html
[2] www.statista.com/statistics/198029/total-number-of-us-licensed-drivers-by-state/
[3] www.statista.com/statistics/191660/fatality-rate-per-100000-licensed-drivers-in-the-us-since-1988/
[4] www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6843304/
[5] www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/PS%20FSLRC%20HowSafe.pdf
[6] www-jstor-org.ezproxy.is.ed.ac.uk/stable/pdf/1727970.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3Ac48a7fe2f9c0fedf29cba859db4daebd
[7] www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/PS%20FSLRC%20HowSafe.pdf
[8] journal.sjdm.org/7303a/jdm7303a.htm

Shkarko

Shikime
637,190

Komente

  • We got some math wrong. The annual fatality odds for licensed drivers in the US is actually 1 in 6,000 which translates to lifetime odds of about 1 in 75.

    Wendover ProductionsWendover Productions13 ditë më parë
    • Hey, just wanted to let you know that the table with 30 activities in rule 4 does not have number 30, instead, number 6 is listed twice) That kinda distracted me till the end of the video

      Kairat DochshanovKairat Dochshanov20 orë më parë
    • That is probably big enough, that you should fix the video or at least do an overlay and note in the description.

      Peter VPeter V4 ditë më parë
    • Yeah you can't leave this video up with that massive of an error bro. You have to change it. Great video though. Really important rn.

      SamtemberSamtember5 ditë më parë
    • So are we overestimating or underestimating the coronavirus risk?

      Jeff TimmerbergJeff Timmerberg6 ditë më parë
    • @panzerveps not true...

      CptKirk FPVCptKirk FPV6 ditë më parë
  • What was the point making the car look like a Tesla 4x4?

    MrTomadevilMrTomadevil10 orë më parë
  • Food colouring is going to be the earths demise

    劇場X リミックス (Theaterxremix)劇場X リミックス (Theaterxremix)20 orë më parë
  • Rule #1 is a moot point. I like my odds driving because I feel like I'm a good driver and can avoid risks. The problem is everyone thinks they are a good driver.

    En PassantEn PassantDitë më parë
  • Did a cybertruck ran over the man?

    NAZMUS SAKIB TONMOYNAZMUS SAKIB TONMOYDitë më parë
  • Hey wendover, do you think you could do Every country EVER. If its too hard, you do t have to do it. I just wanted to let you know about that idea i had

    Ethan's UniverseEthan's UniverseDitë më parë
  • Yeah, the moment that it's not interesting at all has come. Actually long time ago, I'm was just being lazy unsubscribing.

    Alex WordenAlex WordenDitë më parë
  • This is not a good video. Simplifying anything complicated like driving or nuclear power to one fraction is extremely misleading to the point dishonest uselessness. Equating driving to throwing a dice is obviously nonsense, but this is what these statistics do. The risk from driving is better understood by looking at many other factors, such as: the age of the driver, the time of day, the season, the traffic, the intoxication of the driver, the speed, the vehicle and many more. Similar nonsense is brought out when speaking of death by shark. Sure few people die from sharks, but that’s because most of us aren’t in the ocean, most humans can’t swim.

    s4098429s4098429Ditë më parë
  • "You do walk outside" Me, an introvert:

    Mr BizzarosMr BizzarosDitë më parë
  • Very nice video, I learned a lot.

    luca exeluca exe2 ditë më parë
    • why does he sound and talk like Half As Interesting?

      afutla qianafutla qianDitë më parë
  • "Staying at home is safe" Looks at 'Another' Hmm yes I sure hope no construction vehicle crushes me while I'm on my PC

    bocoy noiubocoy noiu2 ditë më parë
  • Change the first letter of the channel's name for "B" and now it sound like a porn site.

    Internet ExplorerInternet Explorer2 ditë më parë
    • I walk outside because life wouldn't be life if I didn't as to say I wouldn't call it life if there was no walking outside

      bocoy noiubocoy noiu2 ditë më parë
  • What the heck is this? First off: I thought this was going to be about the board game Risk. Second: As a Christian I don't walk outside evaluating my chances of making it through the day. I have no logical fear of death. I might be scared temporarily if I see death coming or feel death is about to happen... But as a Christian I know that, "To die is to gain." I will be going to see my Father in Heaven when I leave this Earth. So I am not afraid to go outside. lol

    AdamNethertonAdamNetherton2 ditë më parë
  • It just had to be a Cyber truck. Didn't it?

    Arvind Jiji AntonyArvind Jiji Antony2 ditë më parë
  • can't agree more on your last statement!!!!!

    Khanh PhamKhanh Pham2 ditë më parë
  • wendover productions has become a philosopher....now we must call it whydover productions

    Logan LovellLogan Lovell2 ditë më parë
    • mountain biking the fatality rate of mountain biking would increase much more sharply than for driving if everyone started driving

      kolim jonekolim jone2 ditë më parë
  • Why u use the tesla pick up as the model for car?

    Formata GfysFormata Gfys2 ditë më parë
    • if i were to mountain bike id be much more likely to die than if i were to drive. you frame the statistic as if driving was more dangerous but: the average driver drives many man

      kolim jonekolim jone2 ditë më parë
  • <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="490">8:10</a> Ok Ok....Am I the only one who misses the number 16?

    SlithermotionSlithermotion3 ditë më parë
  • This explains why people fear 5G

    Marc oMarc o3 ditë më parë
  • Wow Wendover this video is great! You've not only set the record straight on that nuclear power video from a few years ago but also put the problem we are witnessing all over to such a succinct point: "when people somehow, get to decide what risk others face, perception is dangerous because it can silently and unknowingly eclipse science, statistics and fact"

    Shakra NandiShakra Nandi3 ditë më parë
  • You should do a video how to make a cargo airline

    PenguinGamingTVPenguinGamingTV3 ditë më parë
  • lot of math are kinda wrong, also didn't take under consideration the amount of people in each activity. statistics can lie when you use tham in such one dimensional way.

    LoloiloCptPoutsLoloiloCptPouts4 ditë më parë
  • Because there are millions of people driving versus just few thousands who do mountain biking

    Ktm SKtm S4 ditë më parë
  • dang I MTB every single day and plan to never own a car 🤷

    Forrest CharlesForrest Charles4 ditë më parë
  • why does he sound and talk like Half As Interesting?

    homeihomei4 ditë më parë
  • "one death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic" Joseph Stalin

    James HarmonJames Harmon4 ditë më parë
  • <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="610">10:10</a> reminds me of a quote allegedly by stalin: "One death is a tragedy; a million deaths a statistic."

    DasNotizPapierDasNotizPapier4 ditë më parë
  • I walk outside because life wouldn't be life if I didn't as to say I wouldn't call it life if there was no walking outside

    Iqbal HassanIqbal Hassan4 ditë më parë
  • PLEASE LEARN ABOUT DE-ESSING and improve your videos

    Emil PEmil P4 ditë më parë
  • Isn’t it great that he uses a cyber truck as his example of a car🤣🤣

    Six Dawg 18Six Dawg 184 ditë më parë
  • <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="71">1:11</a> But there's a VERY low chance of being hit by a Cybertruck, considering that it hasn't been released yet.

    bibasik7bibasik74 ditë më parë
  • if i were to mountain bike id be much more likely to die than if i were to drive. you frame the statistic as if driving was more dangerous but: the average driver drives many many more miles than the average mountain biker. and the average mountain biker is much more skilled at mountain biking than the average driver. and if everyone was to start mountain biking the fatality rate of mountain biking would increase much more sharply than for driving if everyone started driving

    Collin yanCollin yan4 ditë më parë
  • <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="170">2:50</a> you forgot to consider the fact that in any given area at a given moment, the factor for the car being in a more dangerous scenario is higher simply because there are more cars in a given area moving at high speeds than there are bikes. When bikes match the number of car population, then the numbers would relatively equal. For ever 10 car drivers, it's reasonable to assume that at least 7 of them drive with no fuss, just going from point A to point B. The 3 of those 10 however, could have possibly been the ones who contributed to car crashes as they perhaps were those to either drive wrecklessly or drunk drive. The point is, we also have to evaluate these two vehicle's usage and the nature in which they are more likely to be used. Its simply evident in your video examples wherein cars were simply driving about while the mountain bikers will tend to flip around and do "dangerous" leaps onto rocks. I can assure you, of a comparison between 1000 regular cars, going about doing their city driving, and a group of 50 kids intentionally trying crazy stunts on a mountain bike, there will be more injuries with that group of kids. Again, it doesn't have much to do with the "vehicle" perse, it's merely a factor of sheer number of them and the ways in which they are being used, that increases the chance of unwanted combinations of possibilities (crashing, falling off into a cliff, etc.). Now take that previous example of 50 stunt-driven kids and push them to 1000 to equal those of cars. Now you tell me if 1000 stunt-daring kids are less likely to be injured than 1000 regular-driving parents or perhaps elderly people simply going to the grocery.

    Fallen PastabeanFallen Pastabean5 ditë më parë
  • My takeaway from this video was about masks - in the end he shows people walking with masks and a few without. The people who choose not to wear them think they are only choosing a risk for themselves when in fact, because covid-19 can be without symptoms for days, they are choosing the risk of others too.

    M GrohM Groh5 ditë më parë
  • Now I dont want to walk outside

    Westjet 003Westjet 0035 ditë më parë
  • mountain biking has a lesser risk than driving a car because although the number of people mountain biking is high. it is still significantly lower than the number of people driving a car.

    fin thehumanfin thehuman5 ditë më parë
  • I knew this video would get to that conclusion.

    sor3999sor39995 ditë më parë
    • Interesting topic. But very subjective as with anything psychological

      abbsnn coseabbsnn cose5 ditë më parë
  • I.e. COVID-19 is NOT risky. The lockdown will eventually kill more people and break the lives of billions.

    Gerbert HellerGerbert Heller5 ditë më parë
    • Covid scamdemic brought me here. Oh lets kill Fauci and Gates. Seriously.

      abbsnn coseabbsnn cose5 ditë më parë
  • While I agree with the general concept and you later in the video do say that this list is not complete, I have one question regarding your first point that is decoupled from your argument: Do you think the low risk of mountainbiking could be correlated to the fact that those who do this activity are generally skilled at it, in turn reducing the average risk? Now, while I don't know if that is true or not, I assume that, also due to the perceived risk of mountainbiking, only a few people try it. Of these few people some might get injuries or simply dislike the activity and stop after a couple of times, elaving only those skilled at the activity for a vast number of data points that contribute to this statistic. Now thinking about it, maybe the statistic you used as a example accounts for this behavior, but my pessimistic mind kind of doubts that. Not to say that you misinform anyone with this, just an idea to think about. Really love this video btw!

    ShaldisShaldis5 ditë më parë
  • I try to avoid driving due to risk. Yet I love mountain biking.

    nick parrynick parry5 ditë më parë
  • Please don't become CGPGrey and start making philosophy videos... I just want planes, trains, logistics, and science.

    InfiNorthInfiNorth6 ditë më parë
  • The graph shown at around 10 minutes in is wrong. It is the other way round. Also, human brains are extremely pragmatic, so telling us not to trust ourselves is not very helpful.

    BoraCM 39BoraCM 396 ditë më parë
    • @nieooj gotoy What on Earth are you on about?

      BoraCM 39BoraCM 395 ditë më parë
    • Ok but if you never walk outside you will die from no sunlight and no excersize so not doing that is also a risk

      nieooj gotoynieooj gotoy6 ditë më parë
  • Greetings from the town of Wendover, in Buckinghamshire, England 🤚

    Will BanisterWill Banister6 ditë më parë
  • Totally expecting never go for a war in Asia... but this will suffice :P

    Kevin NeilsonKevin Neilson6 ditë më parë
  • Rule #6: Many risks follow the power law distribution or are chaotic but they are reported using the normal distribution. For example, how many people who died in a war (pure chaos) will be reported along side how many people died from coconuts falling on their heads (normal distribution). The former may increase 1000x in a single year, while the latter will rarely deviate more than 1-2 standard deviations between years. This is often used to report that chaotic things are as risky or less risky than common everyday sources of death, and is one of the most common forms of fraud.

    Bryan CroteauBryan Croteau6 ditë më parë
  • "Why do you ever walk outside" Corona:

    YINong XuYINong Xu6 ditë më parë
  • final assertion that evokes a call to consciousness in May 2020.

    afutla qianafutla qian6 ditë më parë
  • Seems to be a mistake in numbers. "1 in 600" dies while driving is way off (277mil / 600 = 378k. Do you have 378k deaths on roads annually?)

    Kromster80Kromster806 ditë më parë
    • This assumes risk is perceived as absolute. I don’t mountain bike because I think I will likely die, but because I don’t want to injure myself.

      afutla qianafutla qian6 ditë më parë
  • a lot of people seem to still be irrationally against nuclear power, though

    ThoperSoughtThoperSought6 ditë më parë
  • Fun fact: the military is one of the safest environments to be in the developed world.

    Tal SheynkmanTal Sheynkman6 ditë më parë
  • Skip to <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="222">3:42</a> to start the video.

    A GamerA Gamer6 ditë më parë
  • Human perception and opinion is more than purely comparing risk vs risk. For instance, driving a car brings loads of value to the family owning the car in terms of convenience and time saved. Granted people don't normally think of the risk on a daily basis, but I still think the comparison to mountain biking in school is flawed. Mountain biking doesn't add (in parents' view) much more value than other PE activities, so it's not worth the added risk. Compare driving vs taking the bus though and you have loads of added value. So it's not just about comparing risk vs risk, it HAS to be concidered together with the VALUE of taking the risk. Any thoughts?

    Eric JohnssonEric Johnsson6 ditë më parë
  • Covid scamdemic brought me here. Oh lets kill Fauci and Gates. Seriously.

    Tomasz KliszTomasz Klisz6 ditë më parë
  • Interesting topic. But very subjective as with anything psychological

    Ignacio IruritaIgnacio Irurita6 ditë më parë
  • There are a few issues I had with the assumptions made in this video, but the one I disagreed with the most is this: "The value of your first dollar is the same as your millionth" Well, the first dollar I earn goes towards lunch. The millionth gets me unnecessary luxury. I don't think those two are equivalent in any way.

    GyroCannonGyroCannon7 ditë më parë
  • <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="166">2:46</a> that's a Tesla Cybertruck, I see what you did there 😏

    Abhiyan BhandariAbhiyan Bhandari7 ditë më parë
  • I think the intro to the video took a weird perspective. For the sidewalk analogy there was no alternative. The risk that came to mind for me was not whether or not to use the side walk, it was should I use the road or sidewalk to walk on. Obviously the risk of walking on the road is significantly higher than the sidewalk so I'll choose the sidewalk. For the mountain biking one you weighed the risk of death from driving or biking but not injury. I don't know for sure but I'd be willing to bet that the statistics for biking injuries is much higher. Although it would be a tough stat to track cause not everyone is going to report their biking mishaps.

    RNG-esusRNG-esus7 ditë më parë
    • Love how he used a Tesla truck as the vehicle representation👍🏼👍🏼 ironically those vehicles will probably change the death rate statistics

      nieooj gotoynieooj gotoy7 ditë më parë
  • I think this might be a bad video?! There certainly is fact, value and knowledge... So the overall content should be good, but somehow the video is bad. Like it's not articulate enough to it's point and it brushes over deeper reasoning without consideration. Point: video ought be good, objective and nuanced, but it isn't. It's choppy and open to misinterpretation, which is also risky. P. S. Long time fan, love your work. Some of your work is truly great and informative but this vid falls pretty short. Thus my (hopefully constructive) criticism.

    Fizzy ZailaniFizzy Zailani7 ditë më parë
    • This video is riddled with logical fallacies and I've only been watching for 3 minutes

      nieooj gotoynieooj gotoy7 ditë më parë
  • Ok but if you never walk outside you will die from no sunlight and no excersize so not doing that is also a risk

    Chongo OkChongo Ok7 ditë më parë
  • Okay the fatality rate of driving is higher than mountain biking, but what about injury rate? Possibly parents were more worried about injuries rather than straight up death

    Andrea FogliaAndrea Foglia7 ditë më parë
  • Your maths on vehicle deaths - 1 in 600 per year - is laughably far off. It's not even close, your LIFETIME risk of dying in a car is still orders of magnitude less than that.

    Chris DomsChris Doms7 ditë më parë
  • When comparing life and risk, there is a catch 22 - because when I step out of the door I risk my life, but if I don't, I don't live it.

    jayjay.24jayjay.247 ditë më parë
  • <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="161">2:41</a> Now we know where Elon Musk got his concept for his Tesla rover.

    Rage KnightRage Knight7 ditë më parë
  • This assumes risk is perceived as absolute. I don’t mountain bike because I think I will likely die, but because I don’t want to injure myself.

    Casey BernerCasey Berner7 ditë më parë
  • came for board game, got existentialism.

    spaghetti is deadispaghetti is deadi7 ditë më parë
  • I hope i don't' die after watching this video this dude made pandemic video before

    Ronak NikamRonak Nikam7 ditë më parë
  • <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="480">8:00</a> railroads is misspelled. "Rairoads"

    Brandon WatersBrandon Waters8 ditë më parë
  • "If you kill one, it is a tragedy. If you kill ten million, it is a statistic."

    LexieAssassinLexieAssassin8 ditë më parë
  • "Why do you walk outside?" I don't. I'm in social quarantine. Checkmate buddy.

    kolim jonekolim jone8 ditë më parë
  • You cant compare driving to mountain biking The number of drivers are much higher than bikers

    قيس الجدياني | QGamer_Arقيس الجدياني | QGamer_Ar8 ditë më parë
    • more exposure to cows than sharks for a fatality to even occur; I don't think you'd say based on that alone that it's riskier to work with cows than it would be to swim with shark

      kolim jonekolim jone8 ditë më parë
  • Eu fiz uma legenda em português-brasileiro... se alguém puder me ajudar a deixar disponível já está na área de legendas do vídeo...

    caquitowscaquitows8 ditë më parë
  • I think some risk numbers are just "correlation not causation" figures.

    Sam GarciaSam Garcia8 ditë më parë
  • well consdering humans will always have some degree of error in our risk management system, our leaders will always over shoot or undershoot the risks of some things.

    Seth ApexSeth Apex8 ditë më parë
  • This video is riddled with logical fallacies and I've only been watching for 3 minutes

    S EdwardsS Edwards8 ditë më parë
  • Love how he used a Tesla truck as the vehicle representation👍🏼👍🏼 ironically those vehicles will probably change the death rate statistics

    Michael HarrisonMichael Harrison8 ditë më parë
  • It's unbelievable most people can't understand such simple things.

    ХОРОШОХОРОШО8 ditë më parë
  • Waited for risks of climate change as an example

    CaptiveCaptive8 ditë më parë
  • <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="134">2:14</a> wasatch crest!!

    stinksmccstinksmcc8 ditë më parë
  • Flawed? Really? How about the fact that mountain biking has no useful utility in our lives; while driving is necessary to accomplish nearly everything.... Most of us have jobs away from home. Simple as...

    Joseph WaddellJoseph Waddell8 ditë më parë
  • Walking outside vs staying at home isn't zero-sum - a huge number of accidents happen in the home. The risk of not getting exercise is very high, etc.

    psammiadpsammiad8 ditë më parë